16.7x EV/EBITDA versus AENA 9.6x — the premium pays for duration and a takeover the holders ruled out.

• What it pays for. Concession to 2086 with €411M of rail tolls formula-bound to UK/FR inflation minus 1.1% through 2052 — the longest contracted cash-flow tail in listed European infrastructure. AENA's regulator resets every five years; APRR motorways expire 2031–36.
• What it can't earn. ROCE 8.2% on 3.95x net debt vs AENA 17.8% on 1.18x. The duration argument has to defer to a path-occupancy lift from 45.6% toward 60% — a 2030+ call option that needs rolling-stock orders no operator has placed.
• What just got ruled out. Eiffage 29.4% + Mundys 25% = 54% capital, 59% votes; both publicly disclaim a bid. The AMF 30% trigger needs an active acquirer. The optionality the multiple priced has crystallised the wrong way.

Two strategic shareholders set the price — the AMF decides whether anyone else gets to.

• The bloc. Eiffage 29.40% capital, Mundys 25.00% after exercising tranche-2 in April 2026 post UK NSI Act clearance. Combined 54.4% of capital and 59.4% of votes via the double-voting mechanic. Four board seats between them. Both publicly disclaim a bid.
• The private floor. Both holders accumulated their incremental tranches at €17.40–€17.70 across 2025–26 — explicit price discovery 7–8% below today's €18.92. Mundys (Edizione/Blackstone, ex-Atlantia) consolidated Aeroporti di Roma, Telepass and Abertis without ever launching a tender.
• The open question. If the AMF rules Eiffage and Mundys are acting in concert, French law forces a mandatory tender on the combined bloc at 30%. No date set. Until it fires, this is settled control without a takeout multiple — the single biggest re-rating lever in the equity sits with a regulator's discretion.

The €0.80 dividend covers — once you strip €170M of non-cash charges out of net income.

• The bear arithmetic. €434M payout ÷ €316M FY25 net income = 137% — uncovered, cuttable on the first ElecLink wobble. Sell-side anchored here; PT mean €19.21 inline with spot prices the bear case.
• What net income hides. €110M of non-cash ElecLink profit-share provision charge — zero euros of cash outflow since 2018, €516M paper liability still unsettled with regulators. Plus €61M of inflation indexation accreting onto debt principal, not paid in cash. Both real economic charges. Neither funds the dividend.
• The cash math. Adjusted cash net income ≈ €487M; €434M payout = 89% covered. Pre-debt-service FCF ran €626M; CFO/NI 2.83x. The 23 July H1 cash flow is the test — a profit-share cash payment line breaks the variant; absence corroborates it.

FY25 reads more like an infrastructure annuity than a transport stock — and FY26 has to prove it sustains.

Eurotunnel prints 78% of group EBITDA at 56% segment margins on a near-fixed cost base — the next truck, passenger or rail toll lands at 60–80% incremental EBITDA flow-through. ElecLink swung group revenue €100M in twelve months on energy-spread normalisation, but 89% of 2026 is pre-sold at €291M against the FY25 €225M print, so the volatile line has unusual visibility into next year. The €820–860M band is what defends the €0.80 dividend into FY27; a print at €860M+ holds the duration premium, sub-€820M activates a payout review.